ES Daily Plan | Tuesday, October 13, 2026

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Markets are entering Tuesday on a defensive footing as geopolitical tensions continue to drive oil prices higher, fueling renewed inflation concerns. The broader sentiment is dampened by an Asian chip sector rout, which is weighing on global risk appetite. While the S&P 500 has shown resilience near record highs, the combination of elevated Treasury yields and fading optimism on Main Street—as highlighted by the latest NFIB survey—suggests that the path of least resistance may be lower in the short term. We are looking for signs of distribution as the market grapples with the implications of persistent inflation and potential Federal Reserve policy shifts.

Levels of Interest

For the session ahead, watch the 5-day equilibrium closely. Price action in gold is currently trading in premium territory (above $4573.82), which often invites sell-side liquidity raids. If the ES follows this structural weakness, we will be monitoring the Previous Day Low (PDL) as the primary magnet for downside liquidity. Overhead, any recovery attempt will likely face stiff resistance at the bearish Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), specifically the $4641–$4656 zone. A failure to reclaim these levels will confirm a shift toward a discount accumulation phase.

Strategy

Maintain a cautious stance. We are looking to fade rallies into resistance zones rather than chasing breakouts in this high-uncertainty environment. Keep a close eye on the 10-year Treasury yield; if it continues to climb, expect further pressure on equity multiples. Focus on high-volume nodes and wait for a clear structural break before committing to directional exposure.